Trump to Impose Tariff of Up to 25% on Mexico Over Migrant Surge

By Jenny Leonard and Shawn Donnan

2019년 5월 31일 오전 8:49 GMT+9 Updated on 2019년 5월 31일 오후 12:47 GMT+9

•  White House says tariff action is separate from new Nafta
•  Republican Senator Grassley calls move ‘misuse’ of authority

U.S. President Donald Trump Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty Images North America

President Donald Trump vowed to impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods until that country stops immigrants from entering the U.S. illegally -- brandishing a weapon used against a widening group of countries and jeopardizing a new North American trade agreement.

도널드 트럼프 대통령은 멕시코가 불법체류자의 미국 입국을 막기 전까지 멕시코 상품에 5%의 관세를 부과하겠다고 공언했다. 이러한 행동은 확대된 국가군에 대항하여 사용되는 무기를 휘두르는 것이며 새로운 북미 무역 협정을 위태롭게 하는 것이다. 

The tariff would take effect on June 10, “until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our country, STOP,” Trump said in a Twitter post on Thursday night.

트럼프는 목요일 밤 트위터에 올린 글에서 "불법 이민자들이 멕시코를 거쳐 우리나라로 들어오는 시기까지 적용된다, 오지마라"고 했으며 6월 10일부터 관세가 적용된다.

He warned that the levy “would gradually increase until the illegal immigration problem is remedied at which time the tariff will be removed.” The tariffs could rise as high as 25% on Oct. 1, Trump said in a statement released by the White House.

그는 "불법 이민 문제가 해결되기 전까지는 관세(levy)가 점차 인상될 것"이라고 경고했다. 트럼프 대통령은 백악관이 발표한 성명에서 10월 1일 관세가 25%까지 오를 수 있다고 밝혔다.

The move, which has major implications for American automakers and other companies with production south of the border and the U.S. economy as a whole, represents Trump’s latest expansion of his trade wars. It comes just days after he removed steel tariffs on Mexico that had caused retaliation against U.S. farm products.

국경 남부와 미국 경제 전반에 걸쳐 생산량을 갖고 있는 미국 자동차 회사들과 다른 기업들에 큰 영향을 미치는 이러한 움직임은 트럼프가 최근 무역전쟁을 확대했음을 나타낸다. 미국 농산물에 대한 보복을 초래했던 멕시코에 대한 철강 관세를 철폐한 지 불과 며칠 만에 나온 것이다.

 

It also marries two of his signature issues -- trade and immigration -- as he ramps up his campaign for re-election in 2020.

그것은 또한 그가 2020년에 재선을 위한 그의 캠페인을 확대하면서 무역과 이민이라는 두 가지 주요 이슈와 결합한다.

Markets React

The Mexican peso weakened by as much as 2.4% after Trump’s tweets, while investors fled to the safest assets as concerns over new trade conflicts mount. The Japanese yen gained while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 2.18%.

트럼프 트윗 이후 멕시코 페소는 2.4%나 약세를 보인 반면, 투자자들은 새로운 무역 분쟁에 대한 우려가 커지면서 가장 안전한 자산으로 도피했다. 일본 엔화는 상승한 반면 미국 재무부의 10년 수익률은 2.18%로 떨어졌다.

Initial reaction from Mexican officials was measured, with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador saying in a letter to Trump posted on Twitter that “I don’t want confrontation.” Lopez Obrador said his foreign minister and other officials would visit Washington the following day to seek agreement, and added that he’s not a coward and is acting on principles.

안드레스 마누엘 로페즈 오브라도 대통령이 트위터에 "대립을 원치 않는다"는 글을 올리는 등 멕시코 당국자들의 초기 반응이 측정됐다. 로페즈 오브라도 외무장관과 다른 관리들은 다음 날 워싱턴을 방문하여 합의를 볼 것이며, 그는 겁쟁이가 아니며 원칙에 따라 행동하고 있다고 덧붙였다.

Jesus Seade, Mexico’s undersecretary of foreign relations for North America, told reporters in Mexico City Thursday at a previously scheduled event that the country won’t retaliate before discussing the matter with the U.S. But the tariff threat, he added, “if turned into reality, would be extremely serious.”

멕시코의 북미 외교담당 차관인 예스 시드는 3일(현지시간) 멕시코시티에서 가진 기자회견에서 미국과 이 문제를 논의하기 전에 멕시코는 보복하지 않을 것이라고 말했다. 그러나 관세위협은 현실화된다면 매우 심각할 것이라고 덧붙였다.

To impose the potential tariffs, Trump said he’s invoking authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a tool that’s used to impose Treasury sanctions. Analysts and lawyers raised questions about the legality of using it in this context.

잠재적 관세를 부과하기 위해 트럼프는 재무적 제재를 위한 도구인 '국제 비상 경제력 법'에 따라 관계당국을 발동한다고 밝힌 겁니다. 분석가들과 변호사들은 이런 맥락에서 그것을 사용하는 것에 대해 합법성 의문을 제기했다.

“This is a misuse of presidential tariff authority and counter to congressional intent," Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa said in a statement Thursday. "I support nearly every one of President Trump’s immigration policies, but this is not one of them."

척 그래슬리 아이오와주 공화당 상원의원은 목요일에 성명을 통해 "대통령의 관세권 남용이자 의회의 의도에 반하는 행위"라고 주장했다. "트럼프 대통령의 이민 정책을 거의 다 지지하지만, 이것은 그 중 하나가 아니다."

Illegal Immigration

Trump made curtailing undocumented immigration a centerpiece of his presidency and campaign. He ran in 2016 on promises to build a border wall to keep out migrants and declared a national emergency to tap federal funds for construction, after Congress didn’t provide as much money as the president demanded.

트럼프는 불법 이민을 축소하는 것을 자신의 대통령직과 선거 운동의 중심축으로 삼았다. 그는 2016년 이민자들을 막기 위해 국경 장벽을 세우겠다는 약속을 받고 출마했으며, 의회가 대통령의 요구만큼 많은 돈을 제공하지 않자 연방정부 건설자금 지원을 위한 국가비상사태를 선포했다.

This month, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a tweet that it had apprehended 45 “large groups” of migrants that included more than 7,900 individuals. On Wednesday, the agency said it stopped 1,036 people south of downtown El Paso, Texas -- the largest group of undocumented immigrants it ever encountered, according to a Customs and Border Protection statement.

이번 달, 미국 세관 국경 보호국은 트윗을 통해 7,900명 이상의 개인들이 포함된 45명의 대규모 이민자들을 체포했다고 발표했다. 세관과 국경보호국에따르면, 이 기관은 수요일에 텍사스 엘파소 시내에서 1,036명의 사람들을 저지했다고 한다. 이는 불법체류자 중 가장 큰 집단이다.

Nafta Implications

The tariff move came the same day that Trump presented notice to Congress to pass his renegotiated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which has allowed tariff-free trade with Mexico and Canada since it came into effect in the 1990s.

이 같은 관세 조치는 트럼프가 1990년대 발효된 이후 멕시코, 캐나다와 무관세 무역을 허용해 온 북미자유무역협정(NATT)의 재협상 버전을 통과시키기 위해 의회에 통보한 것과 같은 날 나온 것이다.

The administration said Thursday’s plan to increase tariffs on its southern neighbor was not linked to Trump’s Nafta replacement, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which the White House is presenting as his No. 1 legislative agenda item.

Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said on a call with reporters Thursday night that the potential tariffs aren’t part of a trade dispute but about the immigration problem. He added that if the White House finds enough cooperation from Mexico over the coming weeks, the tariffs will either not take effect or will be lifted swiftly.

Read More: Trump Tariff on Mexican Oil Would Slam U.S. Gulf Refiners

Acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan laid out what he called “key opportunities for enhanced partnership with Mexico” that could spare the country from increased duties. McAleenan listed the need for Mexico to step up its security efforts at its border with Guatemala, a crackdown on transnational criminal organizations and more cooperation and alignment on asylum policy.

If the U.S. imposes the tariffs, it will be violating Nafta as well as World Trade Organization commitments, said Kenneth Smith Ramos, who was Mexico’s chief negotiator for the USMCA when it was negotiated with the U.S. and Canada last year.

“Under Nafta you cannot increase tariffs unless there are trade remedy investigations or something that is allowed under the agreement,” he said. “So it would be a clear market access violation.”

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say...

“The read across from Mexico to China will add to concerns that talks between Washington D.C. and Beijing are going nowhere. Mexico negotiated revisions to Nafta, only to be hit with sweeping higher tariffs. Other countries, including China, will be taking note, perhaps concluding that negotiated agreements with the U.S. are of little worth."
-- Chang Shu, Yuki Masujima, Tom Orlik

Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a business group representing U.S. companies, said the move was a huge blow to the American economy and casts serious doubt on passage of the new trade deal. “There goes USMCA!” he said. “What trading partner is ever going to trust this administration to honor deals?”

With the move to impose tariffs Trump is reaching for one of his favorite policy tools to pursue a broader policy goal. But he also faces risks of a backlash with polls showing the import taxes he has imposed on goods from China and elsewhere are not popular.

“This is a dramatic escalation that will likely make it impossible for Mexico to continue cooperating with this administration on trade or on controlling asylum flows from Central America,” said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Mexico has negotiated in good faith throughout on the USMCA, and has tried to work with the administration on migration. Unless this tariff is quickly reversed, it will kill cooperation on both.”

— With assistance by Nacha Cattan, Justin Blum, Ruth Carson, Eric Martin, and Michelle Jamrisko